Trends

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Increasing Halesowen temperatures 1956 - 2020

Clearly a slow but steady rise in temperature over the 65 years from 1956 - 2020...
The line of regression/best fit for the linear trend line of the yellow Mean temperatures gives
temp = 0.0323 x (years since 1956)  +  8.663

so in 1965 the trend line was 8.7C
but in 2020 it was 10.7C

That's 1 degree rise every 31 years...

 

Highest max temperatures - 17 out of 20 have been in recent years

If the rising trend continues, we might expect this record to be broken quite often in future...

temp highmax D M Y
35.6 31 7 2020
35.1 25 7 2019
34.9 12 8 2020
34.9 19 7 2006
34.8 2 7 2006
34.7 3 8 1990
34.5 17 7 2006
34.4 1 7 2015
34.2 11 8 2020
34.1 18 7 2006
34.1 19 7 2016
33.8 19 6 2017
33.3 25 7 2006
33.1 9 8 2003
33.0 2 8 1990
33.0 7 8 2020
32.9 3 7 2006
32.9 25 6 2018
32.8 29 6 2019
32.6 1 8 1995

Increasing Halesowen temperatures rainfall 1956 - 2020

I've got my eye on the rainfall 2011 -2016, which in a short space of time has embraced both the highest and the lowest annual rainfall totals here. 
The mean annual rainfall shows signs of increasing over the past decade...

The linear trend line for annual rainfall is

rainfall = 2.1087 x (years since 1956)  + 

so in 1965 the trend line was at 716.1mm per year
but in 2020 it was at 851.1mm per year

Greatest Annual rainfall - 8 out of the 9 years with 
highest annual rainfall have been since 2000

Year Annual Rainfall mm
2014 1186.1
2012

1174.8

1960 1033.7
2013 999.1
2008 997.0
2019 988.3
2016 981.4
2000 977.0
2007 938.4

Only 3 of the years with top 20 snowfall have been since 2000

Year Annual Snow cm
1979 95.8
1981 83.5
1970 64.0
1987 56.0
2013 54.3
1960 54.0
2010 52.5
1956 51.0
1963 49.0
1968 44.5
1964 41.0
1985 40.5
1969 39.0
1965 36.0
1978 34.7
1996 34.0
1982 33.7
1959 33.0
2017 32.9
1986 32.5


Frosts

The number of days experiencing air frosts and ground frosts has decreased, as you would expect if temperatures are steadily rising...

 

Dates of last spring and first autumn air frosts and ground frosts

Day of year is 0 = 1st January,  365/366 = 31st December

You can observe that the last spring frosts (of both kinds) are happening earlier, 
and have drifted earlier by several weeks during these 65 years on average.
Likewise, the first autumn frosts are happening late, by a slightly smaller amount it seems.
So the average growing season of frost free days is now longer by just over a month!

This table shows 10 day slices throughout the year, and tells us how many years out of 65 there has been an air or ground frost in that slice. 
The slice(s) where there is a 50-50 chance of there being an air or ground frost is coloured in blue for air and green for ground/grass frost, so is a sort of "average"

 

CUMULATIVE
LatestAF EarliestAF LatestGF EarliestGF
10 day slice

number of years out of 65 that frost has happened 

Mar 1-10 1      
Mar 11-20 2      
Mar 21-31 7      
Apr 1-10 11      
Apr 11-20 25   0  
Apr 21-30 37   4  
May 1-10 52   15  
May 11-20 60   30  
May 21-31 62   48  
Jun 1-10 65   58  
Jun 11-20 SAFE   64  
Jun 21-30     65  
Jul 1-10     SAFE  
Jul 11-20        
Jul 21-31        
Aug 1-10        
Aug 11-20       SAFE
Aug 21-31   SAFE   0
Sep 1-10   0   2
Sep 11-20   1   8
Sep 21-31   3   21
Oct 1-10   9   40
Oct 11-20   22   54
Oct 21-31   37   60
Nov 1-10   55   64
Nov 11-20   59   65
Nov 21-30   62   65
Dec 1-10   64   65
Dec 11-20   65   65

 

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